TE · pick 154 — first ever tight end at #154 (1978)

TE·pick 154

FIRST TE EVER DRAFTED AT #154

Conrad Rucker

Drafted by TEN · Southern

1978

TEs drafted at #154 in NFL history

most recent: Jeremy Sprinkle (WAS, 2017)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1977, the model gave a tight end at #154 a 5.5% chance in 1978.

Tight end at #154, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 11.5% · 2027 model: 7.7%

Surrounding picks · 1978 draft

#149CPitts, AlAl PittsCLE
#150SDwight HicksDET
#151DEWilliams, JackJack WilliamsARI
#152WRRodney ParkerATL
#153OGTony ArdizzoneDET
#155RBGeise, SteveSteve GeiseCIN
#156LBColeman, KemKem ColemanNE
#157LBFrancis ChesleyNO
#158DEMekeli IeremiaCHI
#159RBTony GreenWAS

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 4 picks

2017Jeremy SprinkleWAS — GM Bruce Allen · Arkansas
2010Andrew QuarlessGB — GM Ted Thompson · Penn St.
1988Steve JohnsonNE — GM Patrick Sullivan · Virginia Tech
1985Keith LesterCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin · Murray St.

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