TE·pick 1
1967–present, every common draft.
No team has ever spent the #1 overall pick on a tight end in 60 drafts. Pitts at #4 (Falcons, 2021) is the highest TE has gone since 1967 — Riley Odoms went #5 to Denver in 1972, and that was it for top-5 TEs for half a century. The whole top-3 of the TE column is white.
The model gives a 0.4% chance this becomes a draftigami in the 2027 draft.
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 7.4% · 2027 model: 0.2%