The very last pick of the draft, except the slot drifts year to year. Compensatory picks (extra picks at the end of rounds 3-7 to teams that lost free agents, a post-1994 invention) and forfeited picks (Spygate, Deflategate, Saints bountygate) push the final pick anywhere from #254 to #262. Pre-1994 drafts ran much longer — Mr. Irrelevant was as deep as #336 (1976). Usually a special-teamer or a long-shot QB. Sometimes (Brock Purdy, 2022) a starter.
How likely is this to become a draftigami?
The model gives a 5.88% chance this becomes a draftigami in the 2027 draft.
Specialist at #257, year by year
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.