ST · pick 202 — first ever specialist at #202 (2005)

ST·pick 202

FIRST ST EVER DRAFTED AT #202

Dave Rayner

Drafted by IND — GM Bill Polian · Michigan St.

2005

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2004, the model gave a specialist at #202 a 2.4% chance in 2005.

Specialist at #202, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 8.7% · 2027 model: 3.1%

Surrounding picks · 2005 draft

#197OGJustin GeisingerBUF — GM Tom Donahoe
#198TEJoel DreessenNYJ — GM Terry Bradway
#199DEKhari LongKC — GM Carl Peterson
#200OGChris MyersDEN — GM Mike Shanahan
#201RBDeAndra CobbATL — GM Rich McKay
#203DTAndrew HoffmanCLE — GM Phil Savage
#204OGChris KemoeatuPIT — GM Kevin Colbert
#205CBDerrick JohnsonSF — GM Scot McCloughan
#206DEJonathan GoddardDET — GM Matt Millen
#207OTJoe BergerCAR — GM Marty Hurney

Drafted at this same coordinate later

Nobody else has been drafted as this position at this pick number.

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