ST · pick 178 — first ever specialist at #178 (1981)

ST·pick 178

FIRST ST EVER DRAFTED AT #178

Obed Ariri

Drafted by IND — GM Dick Szymanski · Clemson

1981

STs drafted at #178 in NFL history

most recent: Taylor Mehlhaff (NO, 2008)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1980, the model gave a specialist at #178 a 2.6% chance in 1981.

Specialist at #178, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 7.8% · 2027 model: 2.5%

Surrounding picks · 1981 draft

#173CBRon FellowsDAL — GM Tex Schramm
#174STAlan DuncanPHI — GM Jim Murray
#175TERon BattleLAR — GM Don Klosterman
#176LBJeff SchuhCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#177CBJeff FisherCHI — GM Jim Finks
#179OTMike DaumMIA — GM Don Shula
#180RBBilly JacksonKC — GM Jim Schaaf
#181LBSteve BusickDEN — GM Edgar Kaiser/staff
#182OTLee SpiveyDET — GM Russ Thomas
#183LBDavid LittlePIT — GM Dick Haley

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 2 picks

2008Taylor MehlhaffNO — GM Mickey Loomis · Wisconsin
2007Nick FolkDAL — GM Jerry Jones · Arizona

→ see this cell on the full chart