ST · pick 174 — first ever specialist at #174 (1981)

ST·pick 174

FIRST ST EVER DRAFTED AT #174

Alan Duncan

Drafted by PHI — GM Jim Murray · Tennessee

1981

STs drafted at #174 in NFL history

most recent: Paul Edinger (CHI, 2000)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1980, the model gave a specialist at #174 a 2.6% chance in 1981.

Specialist at #174, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 7.7% · 2027 model: 2.4%

Surrounding picks · 1981 draft

#169DEKenny NeilNYJ — GM Jim Kensil
#170WRRon JohnsonSEA — GM John Thompson
#171CBKevin DonnalleyARI — GM Bill Bidwill
#172SBill WhitakerGB — GM Bart Starr
#173CBRon FellowsDAL — GM Tex Schramm
#175TERon BattleLAR — GM Don Klosterman
#176LBJeff SchuhCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#177CBJeff FisherCHI — GM Jim Finks
#178STObed AririIND — GM Dick Szymanski
#179OTMike DaumMIA — GM Don Shula

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 1 pick

2000Paul EdingerCHI — GM Mark Hatley · Michigan St.

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