ST · pick 154 — first ever specialist at #154 (1990)

ST·pick 154

FIRST ST EVER DRAFTED AT #154

John Nies

Drafted by BUF — GM Bill Polian · Arizona

1990

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1989, the model gave a specialist at #154 a 3.4% chance in 1990.

Specialist at #154, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 7.0% · 2027 model: 2.0%

Surrounding picks · 1990 draft

#149RBMarcus WilsonLV — GM Al Davis
#150CBDon OdegardCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#151CBSean VanhorseMIA — GM Don Shula
#152DTTom SimsKC — GM Carl Peterson
#153WRTony JonesTEN — GM Mike Holovak
#155WRRonald HeardPIT — GM Dick Haley
#156QBMike BuckNO — GM Jim Finks
#157CBRandy HilliardCLE — GM Ernie Accorsi
#158LBJames WilliamsNO — GM Jim Finks
#159LBBryce PaupGB — GM Tom Braatz

Drafted at this same coordinate later

Nobody else has been drafted as this position at this pick number.

→ see this cell on the full chart