ST · pick 11 — first ever specialist at #11 (1979)

ST·pick 11

FIRST ST EVER DRAFTED AT #11

Russell Erxleben

Drafted by NO · Texas

1979

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1978, the model gave a specialist at #11 a 0.99% chance in 1979.

Specialist at #11, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 4.9% · 2027 model: 0.4%

Surrounding picks · 1979 draft

#6LBBarry KraussIND
#7QBPhil SimmsNYG
#8RBOttis AndersonARI
#9DEAl HarrisCHI
#10OTKeith DorneyDET
#12RBCharles AlexanderCIN
#13TEKellen WinslowLAC
#14DEMarty LyonsNYJ
#15RBEddie Lee IveryGB
#16RBTed BrownMIN

Drafted at this same coordinate later

Nobody else has been drafted as this position at this pick number.

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