S · pick 38 — first ever safety at #38 (1993)

S·pick 38

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #38

Roger Harper

Drafted by ATL — GM Ken Herock · Ohio St.

1993

safeties drafted at #38 in NFL history

most recent: T.J. Ward (CLE, 2010)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1992, the model gave a safety at #38 a 8.3% chance in 1993.

Safety at #38, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 14.5% · 2027 model: 3.6%

Surrounding picks · 1993 draft

#33CBRyan McNeilDET — GM Chuck Schmidt
#34LBDemetrious DuBoseTB — GM Phil Krueger
#35DTCarl SimpsonCHI — GM Bill Tobin
#36DEColeman RudolphNYJ — GM Dick Steinberg
#37TETony McGeeCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#39TETroy DraytonLAR — GM John Shaw
#40DEMichael StrahanNYG — GM George Young
#41RBNatrone MeansLAC — GM Bobby Beathard
#42DEDan FootmanCLE — GM Bill Belichick
#43RBGlyn MilburnDEN — GM John Beake

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 1 pick

2010T.J. WardCLE — GM Tom Heckert · Oregon

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