S · pick 34 — first ever safety at #34 (1987)

S·pick 34

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #34

Tim McDonald

Drafted by ARI — GM Bill Bidwill · USC

1987

safeties drafted at #34 in NFL history

most recent: Aaron Williams (BUF, 2011)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1986, the model gave a safety at #34 a 6.7% chance in 1987.

Safety at #34, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 14.3% · 2027 model: 3.6%

Surrounding picks · 1987 draft

#29CBNate OdomesBUF — GM Bill Polian
#30CBBrian DavisWAS — GM Bobby Beathard
#31RBKenny FlowersATL — GM Ken Herock
#32CGregg RakoczyCLE — GM Ernie Accorsi
#33CBRoland MitchellBUF — GM Bill Polian
#35RBChristian OkoyeKC — GM Jim Schaaf
#36CBRicky ReynoldsTB — GM Phil Krueger
#37OGJeff BregelSF — GM John McVay
#38CBDelton HallPIT — GM Dick Haley
#39CBRon FrancisDAL — GM Tex Schramm

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 6 picks

2011Aaron WilliamsBUF — GM Buddy Nix · Texas
2009Patrick ChungNE — GM Bill Belichick · Oregon
2005Brodney PoolCLE — GM Phil Savage · Oklahoma
2000Mark RomanCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin · LSU
1990Robert BlackmonSEA — GM Tom Flores/Behring · Baylor
1989Carnell LakePIT — GM Dick Haley · UCLA

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