S · pick 254 — first ever safety at #254 (2000)

S·pick 254

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #254

Michael Green

Drafted by CHI — GM Mark Hatley · Northwestern St. (LA)

2000

safeties drafted at #254 in NFL history

most recent: Gervarrius Owens (NYG, 2023)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1999, the model gave a safety at #254 a 7.5% chance in 2000.

Safety at #254, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 20.2% · 2027 model: 5.7%

🟡 Mr. Irrelevant cell

Last pick of the draft in 1 year.

2000 Michael Green (CHI)

Surrounding picks · 2000 draft

#249LBEugene McCaslinGB — GM Ron Wolf
#250WREthan HowellWAS — GM Vinny Cerrato
#251LBDaShon PolkBUF — GM John Butler
#252RBRondell MealeyGB — GM Ron Wolf
#253DTAlfonso BooneDET — GM Chuck Schmidt

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 3 picks

2023Gervarrius OwensNYG — GM Joe Schoen · Houston
2022Elijah HicksCHI — GM Ryan Poles · California
2006Vickiel VaughnSF — GM Scot McCloughan · Arkansas

→ see this cell on the full chart