S · pick 229 — first ever safety at #229 (2011)

S·pick 229

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #229

Jonathan Nelson

Drafted by LAR — GM Billy Devaney · Oklahoma

2011

safeties drafted at #229 in NFL history

most recent: Adrian Colbert (SF, 2017)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2010, the model gave a safety at #229 a 7.9% chance in 2011.

Safety at #229, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 17.1% · 2027 model: 5.5%

Surrounding picks · 2011 draft

#224DEMarkus WhiteWAS — GM Bruce Allen
#225RBAnthony AllenBAL — GM Ozzie Newsome
#226DTGreg RomeusNO — GM Mickey Loomis
#227WRScotty McKnightNYJ — GM Mike Tannenbaum
#228LBJabara WilliamsLAR — GM Billy Devaney
#230DECliff MatthewsATL — GM Thomas Dimitroff
#231DTFrank KearseMIA — GM Jeff Ireland
#232RBBaron BatchPIT — GM Kevin Colbert
#233DTLawrence GuyGB — GM Ted Thompson
#234LBAndrew GachkarLAC — GM A.J. Smith

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 1 pick

2017Adrian ColbertSF — GM John Lynch · Miami (FL)

→ see this cell on the full chart