S · pick 21 — first ever safety at #21 (1975)

S·pick 21

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #21

Tim Gray

Drafted by ARI · Texas A&M

1975

safeties drafted at #21 in NFL history

most recent: Darnell Savage Jr. (GB, 2019)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1974, the model gave a safety at #21 a 5.2% chance in 1975.

Safety at #21, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 12.8% · 2027 model: 3.3%

Surrounding picks · 1975 draft

#16TERuss FrancisNE
#17CBLouis WrightDEN
#18LBTom HendersonDAL
#19LBTom RuudBUF
#20OTDoug FranceLAR
#22CBMike WilliamsLAC
#23OTDarryl CarltonMIA
#24CBNeal ColzieLV
#25DEMark MullaneyMIN
#26CBDave BrownPIT

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 6 picks

2019Darnell Savage Jr.GB — GM Brian Gutekunst · Maryland
2014Ha Ha Clinton-DixGB — GM Ted Thompson · Alabama
2007Reggie NelsonJAX — GM James Harris · Florida
2001Nate ClementsBUF — GM Tom Donahoe · Ohio St.
1985Jerry GrayLAR — GM John Shaw · Texas
1976Tim FoxNE · Ohio State

→ see this cell on the full chart