S · pick 206 — first ever safety at #206 (2008)

S·pick 206

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #206

Haruki Nakamura

Drafted by BAL — GM Ozzie Newsome · Cincinnati

2008

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2007, the model gave a safety at #206 a 8.2% chance in 2008.

Safety at #206, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 15.3% · 2027 model: 5.4%

Surrounding picks · 2008 draft

#201CSteve JusticeIND — GM Bill Polian
#202RBMike HartIND — GM Bill Polian
#203LBAndy StudebakerPHI — GM Tom Heckert
#204RBLex HilliardMIA — GM Jeff Ireland
#205WRPierre GarconIND — GM Bill Polian
#207TEMatt SherryCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#208DEErvin BaldwinCHI — GM Jerry Angelo
#209QBMatt FlynnGB — GM Ted Thompson
#210DEBrian JohnstonKC — GM Carl Peterson
#211OTNate GarnerNYJ — GM Mike Tannenbaum

Drafted at this same coordinate later

Nobody else has been drafted as this position at this pick number.

→ see this cell on the full chart