S · pick 204 — first ever safety at #204 (2016)

S·pick 204

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #204

Jordan Lucas

Drafted by MIA — GM Chris Grier · Penn St.

2016

safeties drafted at #204 in NFL history

most recent: Theo Jackson (TEN, 2022)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2015, the model gave a safety at #204 a 9.3% chance in 2016.

Safety at #204, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 15.1% · 2027 model: 5.4%

Surrounding picks · 2016 draft

#199WRCody CoreCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#200OTKyle MurphyGB — GM Ted Thompson
#201QBBrandon AllenJAX — GM David Caldwell
#202DTAnthony ZettelDET — GM Bob Quinn
#203DEDadi NicolasKC — GM John Dorsey
#205CBHarlan MillerARI — GM Steve Keim
#206WRMike ThomasLAR — GM Les Snead
#207QBJeff DriskelSF — GM Trent Baalke
#208LBKamu Grugier-HillNE — GM Bill Belichick
#209CBMaurice CanadyBAL — GM Ozzie Newsome

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 1 pick

2022Theo JacksonTEN — GM Jon Robinson · Tennessee

→ see this cell on the full chart