S · pick 20 — first ever safety at #20 (1989)

S·pick 20

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #20

Steve Atwater

Drafted by DEN — GM John Beake · Arkansas

1989

safeties drafted at #20 in NFL history

most recent: Kareem Jackson (HOU, 2010)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1988, the model gave a safety at #20 a 5.5% chance in 1989.

Safety at #20, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 12.7% · 2027 model: 3.3%

Surrounding picks · 1989 draft

#15OTAndy HeckSEA — GM Tom Flores/Behring
#16WRHart Lee DykesNE — GM Patrick Sullivan
#17OTJoe WolfARI — GM Bill Bidwill
#18CBrian WilliamsNYG — GM George Young
#19DEWayne MartinNO — GM Jim Finks
#21DEBill HawkinsLAR — GM John Shaw
#22WRAndre RisonIND — GM Jim Irsay/staff
#23OTDavid WilliamsTEN — GM Ladd Herzeg
#24OGTom RickettsPIT — GM Dick Haley
#25SLouis OliverMIA — GM Don Shula

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 2 picks

2010Kareem JacksonHOU — GM Rick Smith · Alabama
2001Adam ArchuletaLAR — GM Charley Armey · Arizona St.

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