S · pick 198 — first ever safety at #198 (2000)

S·pick 198

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #198

Matt Bowen

Drafted by LAR — GM Charley Armey · Iowa

2000

safeties drafted at #198 in NFL history

most recent: Patrick McMorris (MIA, 2024)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1999, the model gave a safety at #198 a 8.7% chance in 2000.

Safety at #198, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 14.7% · 2027 model: 5.4%

Surrounding picks · 2000 draft

#193SDavid GibsonTB — GM Rich McKay
#194DTLeif LarsenBUF — GM John Butler
#195SMichael HawthorneNO — GM Randy Mueller
#196WREmanuel SmithJAX — GM Tom Coughlin
#197DERobaire SmithTEN — GM Floyd Reese
#199QBTom BradyNE — GM Bill Belichick
#200WRSherrod GideonNO — GM Randy Mueller
#201DEDavid NugentNE — GM Bill Belichick
#202QBTodd HusakWAS — GM Vinny Cerrato
#203CBDamen WheelerLAC — GM Bobby Beathard

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 5 picks

2024Patrick McMorrisMIA — GM Chris Grier · California
2023Jerrick ReedSEA — GM John Schneider · New Mexico
2020Antoine Brooks Jr.PIT — GM Kevin Colbert · Maryland
2011Tyler SashNYG — GM Jerry Reese · Iowa
2004Keith LewisSF — GM Terry Donahue · Oregon

→ see this cell on the full chart