S · pick 194 — first ever safety at #194 (1976)

S·pick 194

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #194

Chesley, JayJay Chesley

Drafted by SF · Vanderbilt

1976

safeties drafted at #194 in NFL history

most recent: Ryan Mundy (PIT, 2008)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1975, the model gave a safety at #194 a 7.5% chance in 1976.

Safety at #194, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 14.5% · 2027 model: 5.4%

Surrounding picks · 1976 draft

#188DEAbdul SalaamNYJ
#189DTCassidy, SteveSteve CassidyCLE
#190LBJerry MuckensturmCHI
#191DECarl HairstonPHI
#193WRKarl FarmerATL
#195SWilliams, JackieJackie WilliamsBUF
#196RBWellington, RodRod WellingtonKC

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 3 picks

2008Ryan MundyPIT — GM Kevin Colbert · West Virginia
1999Armon HatcherBUF — GM John Butler · Oregon St.
1986Bruce JonesCHI — GM Jerry Vainisi · North Alabama

→ see this cell on the full chart