S · pick 18 — first ever safety at #18 (1972)

S·pick 18

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #18

Thom Darden

Drafted by CLE · Michigan

1972

safeties drafted at #18 in NFL history

most recent: Calvin Pryor (NYJ, 2014)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1971, the model gave a safety at #18 a 3.4% chance in 1972.

Safety at #18, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 12.5% · 2027 model: 3.3%

Surrounding picks · 1972 draft

#13RBFranco HarrisPIT
#14QBJohn ReavesPHI
#15SClarence EllisATL
#16DEHerb OrvisDET
#17CBEldridge SmallNYG
#19WRTerry BeasleySF
#20LBMike TaylorNYJ
#21WRMike SianiLV
#22OTTom DrougasIND
#23RBJeff KinneyKC

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 5 picks

2014Calvin PryorNYJ — GM John Idzik · Louisville
2013Eric ReidSF — GM Trent Baalke · LSU
1992Dana HallSF — GM John McVay · Washington
1984Don RogersCLE — GM Art Modell/staff · UCLA
1973Mike HolmesSF · Texas Southern

→ see this cell on the full chart