S · pick 17 — first ever safety at #17 (1983)

S·pick 17

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #17

Leonard Smith

Drafted by ARI — GM Bill Bidwill · McNeese St.

1983

safeties drafted at #17 in NFL history

most recent: Derwin James (LAC, 2018)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1982, the model gave a safety at #17 a 4.1% chance in 1983.

Safety at #17, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 12.5% · 2027 model: 3.3%

Surrounding picks · 1983 draft

#12TETony HunterBUF — GM Stew Barber
#13RBJames JonesDET — GM Russ Thomas
#14QBJim KellyBUF — GM Stew Barber
#15QBTony EasonNE — GM Patrick Sullivan
#16DTMike PittsATL — GM Tom Braatz
#18WRWillie GaultCHI — GM Jerry Vainisi
#19SJoey BrownerMIN — GM Mike Lynn
#20RBGary AndersonLAC — GM Steve Ortmayer
#21DTGabe RiveraPIT — GM Dick Haley
#22CBGill ByrdLAC — GM Steve Ortmayer

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 2 picks

2018Derwin JamesLAC — GM Tom Telesco · Florida St.
2016Keanu NealATL — GM Thomas Dimitroff · Florida

→ see this cell on the full chart