S · pick 16 — first ever safety at #16 (2003)

S·pick 16

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #16

Troy Polamalu

Drafted by PIT — GM Kevin Colbert · USC

2003

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2002, the model gave a safety at #16 a 7.0% chance in 2003.

Safety at #16, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 12.5% · 2027 model: 3.3%

Surrounding picks · 2003 draft

#11CBMarcus TrufantSEA — GM Mike Holmgren
#12DTJimmy KennedyLAR — GM Charley Armey
#13DETy WarrenNE — GM Bill Belichick
#14DEMichael HaynesCHI — GM Jerry Angelo
#15DEJerome McDouglePHI — GM Andy Reid
#17WRBryant JohnsonARI — GM Rod Graves
#18DECalvin PaceARI — GM Rod Graves
#19QBKyle BollerBAL — GM Ozzie Newsome
#20OTGeorge FosterDEN — GM Mike Shanahan
#21CJeff FaineCLE — GM Butch Davis

Drafted at this same coordinate later

Nobody else has been drafted as this position at this pick number.

→ see this cell on the full chart