S · pick 154 — first ever safety at #154 (1971)

S·pick 154

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #154

Neely, WyckWyck Neely

Drafted by PHI · Ole Miss

1971

safeties drafted at #154 in NFL history

most recent: Michael Carter II (NYJ, 2021)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1970, the model gave a safety at #154 a 6.2% chance in 1971.

Safety at #154, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 13.6% · 2027 model: 5.3%

Surrounding picks · 1971 draft

#149LBGreg SloughLV
#150QBFrank HarrisDET
#151LBDennis ColemanMIA
#152WRFranklin, HermanHerman FranklinDET
#153WRBresler, AlAl BreslerSF
#155WRMaier, SteveSteve MaierDAL
#156DTKen FrithIND
#157SDon MartinLV
#158OGLarry DiNardoNO
#159LBPhil CroyleTEN

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 2 picks

2021Michael Carter IINYJ — GM Joe Douglas · Duke
2003Donnie NickeyTEN — GM Floyd Reese · Ohio St.

→ see this cell on the full chart