S · pick 15 — first ever safety at #15 (1972)

S·pick 15

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #15

Clarence Ellis

Drafted by ATL · Notre Dame

1972

safeties drafted at #15 in NFL history

most recent: Malik Hooker (IND, 2017)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1971, the model gave a safety at #15 a 3.1% chance in 1972.

Safety at #15, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 12.4% · 2027 model: 3.3%

Surrounding picks · 1972 draft

#10LBJeff SiemonMIN
#11QBJerry TaggeGB
#12SCraig ClemonsCHI
#13RBFranco HarrisPIT
#14QBJohn ReavesPHI
#16DEHerb OrvisDET
#17CBEldridge SmallNYG
#18SThom DardenCLE
#19WRTerry BeasleySF
#20LBMike TaylorNYJ

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 3 picks

2017Malik HookerIND — GM Chris Ballard · Ohio St.
2013Kenny VaccaroNO — GM Mickey Loomis · Texas
1981Dennis SmithDEN — GM Edgar Kaiser/staff · USC

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