S · pick 11 — first ever safety at #11 (2018)

S·pick 11

FIRST S EVER DRAFTED AT #11

Minkah Fitzpatrick

Drafted by MIA — GM Chris Grier · Alabama

2018

safeties drafted at #11 in NFL history

most recent: Caleb Downs (DAL, 2026)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2017, the model gave a safety at #11 a 7.6% chance in 2018.

Safety at #11, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 12.2% · 2027 model: 3.3%

Surrounding picks · 2018 draft

#6OGQuenton NelsonIND — GM Chris Ballard
#7QBJosh AllenBUF — GM Brandon Beane
#8LBRoquan SmithCHI — GM Ryan Pace
#9OTMike McGlincheySF — GM John Lynch
#10QBJosh RosenARI — GM Steve Keim
#12DTVita VeaTB — GM Jason Licht
#13DTDaron PayneWAS — GM Bruce Allen
#14DEMarcus DavenportNO — GM Mickey Loomis
#15OTKolton MillerLV — GM Reggie McKenzie
#16LBTremaine EdmundsBUF — GM Brandon Beane

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 1 pick

2026Caleb DownsDAL · Ohio St.

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