The RB column has flipped. From 1969 to 1995, seven backs went #1 overall. Modern teams treat round-1 RB as a misallocation — pick 75, the third round, is the new sweet spot, where Kareem Hunt, Aaron Jones, Devonta Freeman, and David Montgomery all went.
How rare was this draftigami?
Trained on every pick through 1973, the model gave a running back at #75 a 13.1% chance in 1974.
Running back at #75, year by year
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.