RB · pick 51 — first ever running back at #51 (1983)

RB·pick 51

FIRST RB EVER DRAFTED AT #51

Johnny Hector

Drafted by NYJ — GM Jim Kensil · Texas A&M

1983

RBs drafted at #51 in NFL history

most recent: Toby Gerhart (MIN, 2010)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1982, the model gave a running back at #51 a 12.7% chance in 1983.

Running back at #51, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 24.2% · 2027 model: 5.1%

Surrounding picks · 1983 draft

#46LBJody SchulzPHI — GM Jim Murray
#47WRDarryal WilsonNE — GM Patrick Sullivan
#48OGDave DrechslerGB — GM Bart Starr
#49RBRoger CraigSF — GM John McVay
#50LBMike WalterDAL — GM Tex Schramm
#52WRWayne CapersPIT — GM Dick Haley
#53SRay HortonCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#54DTBill PickelLV — GM Al Davis
#55DTMike CharlesMIA — GM Don Shula
#56RBRichard WilliamsWAS — GM Bobby Beathard

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 4 picks

2010Toby GerhartMIN — GM Rick Spielman · Stanford
2002Clinton PortisDEN — GM Mike Shanahan · Miami (FL)
1995Terrell FletcherLAC — GM Bobby Beathard · Wisconsin
1987Don SmithTB — GM Phil Krueger · Mississippi St.

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