RB · pick 40 — first ever running back at #40 (1970)

RB·pick 40

FIRST RB EVER DRAFTED AT #40

Bill Dusenbery

Drafted by TEN · Johnson C. Smith

1970

RBs drafted at #40 in NFL history

most recent: Thurman Thomas (BUF, 1988)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1969, the model gave a running back at #40 a 17.0% chance in 1970.

Running back at #40, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 24.7% · 2027 model: 4.7%

Surrounding picks · 1970 draft

#35WRDonnie WilliamsLAR
#36DEJoe JonesCLE
#37DEAlden RocheDEN
#38OGChuck HutchisonARI
#39RBArt MaloneATL
#41SAl MatthewsGB
#42DTTom WilliamsLAC
#43DTBill BrundigeWAS
#44DTJim BaileyIND
#45OTRay ParsonDET

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 4 picks

1988Thurman ThomasBUF — GM Bill Polian · Oklahoma St.
1982Robert WeathersNE — GM Bucko Kilroy · Arizona St.
1976Jim JensenDAL · Iowa
1971Bo CornellCLE · Washington

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