RB · pick 4 — first ever running back at #4 (1975)

RB·pick 4

FIRST RB EVER DRAFTED AT #4

Walter Payton

Drafted by CHI · Jackson State

1975

RBs drafted at #4 in NFL history

most recent: Leonard Fournette (JAX, 2017)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1974, the model gave a running back at #4 a 17.1% chance in 1975.

Running back at #4, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 44.0% · 2027 model: 3.4%

Surrounding picks · 1975 draft

#1QBSteve BartkowskiATL
#2DTRandy WhiteDAL
#3OGKen HuffIND
#5DEMack MitchellCLE
#6LBRobert BrazileTEN
#7WRLarry BurtonNO
#8DTGary JohnsonLAC
#9DTMike FanningLAR

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 7 picks

2017Leonard FournetteJAX — GM David Caldwell · LSU
2016Ezekiel ElliottDAL — GM Jerry Jones · Ohio St.
2008Darren McFaddenLV — GM Al Davis era · Arkansas
2005Cedric BensonCHI — GM Jerry Angelo · Texas
1999Edgerrin JamesIND — GM Bill Polian · Miami (FL)
1987Brent FullwoodGB — GM Tom Braatz · Auburn
1976Joe WashingtonLAC · Oklahoma

→ see this cell on the full chart