RB · pick 170 — first ever running back at #170 (1978)

RB·pick 170

FIRST RB EVER DRAFTED AT #170

James Earley

Drafted by NYJ · Michigan State

1978

RBs drafted at #170 in NFL history

most recent: Vick Ballard (IND, 2012)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1977, the model gave a running back at #170 a 15.8% chance in 1978.

Running back at #170, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 25.8% · 2027 model: 8.2%

Surrounding picks · 1978 draft

#165WRJesse ThompsonDET
#166LBHarold RandolphDAL
#167WRAlfred JacksonATL
#168CBRicky OdomKC
#169CBArmstrong, LeviLevi ArmstrongNYJ
#171LBMario CelottoBUF
#172LBPlasketes, GeorgeGeorge PlasketesGB
#173SJohn HarrisSEA
#174RBDan DoorninkNYG
#175CFred QuillanSF

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 5 picks

2012Vick BallardIND — GM Ryan Grigson · Mississippi St.
2006Wali LundyHOU — GM Rick Smith · Virginia
1995Travis JerveyGB — GM Ron Wolf · The Citadel
1991Tyrone SheltonLAR — GM John Shaw · William & Mary
1984Willie JoynerTEN — GM Ladd Herzeg · Maryland

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