QB·pick 27
Drafted by MIN · Rice
1977
Five quarterbacks went before Marino in the 'Class of '83.' The slide was so famous it became a recurring draft-night narrative: the Aaron Rodgers fall to 24 (2005), the Lamar Jackson fall to 32 (2018), the Will Levis non-fall to 33 (2023). The chart's most famous late-round-1 QB cell.
Trained on every pick through 1976, the model gave a quarterback at #27 a 3.9% chance in 1977.
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 13.0% · 2027 model: 3.1%