QB · pick 262 — first ever quarterback at #262 (2022)

QB·pick 262

FIRST QB EVER DRAFTED AT #262

Brock Purdy

Drafted by SF — GM John Lynch · Iowa St.

2022

Editor's note

Brock Purdy

49ers, 2022. The 262nd and final pick of the entire draft. Mr. Irrelevant himself. Three years later he was starting in an NFC Championship game. The chart's loudest underdog cell.

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2021, the model gave a quarterback at #262 a 3.5% chance in 2022.

Quarterback at #262, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 14.3% · 2027 model: 5.6%

🟡 Mr. Irrelevant cell

Last pick of the draft in 1 year.

2022 Brock Purdy (SF)

Surrounding picks · 2022 draft

#257OGMarquis HayesARI — GM Steve Keim
#258WRSamori ToureGB — GM Brian Gutekunst
#259SNazeeh JohnsonKC — GM Brett Veach
#260RBZander HorvathLAC — GM Tom Telesco
#261OTAJ ArcuriLAR — GM Les Snead

Drafted at this same coordinate later

Nobody else has been drafted as this position at this pick number.

→ see this cell on the full chart