QB · pick 253 — first ever quarterback at #253 (2012)

QB·pick 253

FIRST QB EVER DRAFTED AT #253

Chandler Harnish

Drafted by IND — GM Ryan Grigson · Northern Illinois

2012

QBs drafted at #253 in NFL history

most recent: Chad Kelly (DEN, 2017)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2011, the model gave a quarterback at #253 a 4.1% chance in 2012.

Quarterback at #253, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 13.1% · 2027 model: 5.5%

🟡 Mr. Irrelevant cell

Last pick of the draft in 2 years.

2017 Chad Kelly (DEN)
2012 Chandler Harnish (IND)

Surrounding picks · 2012 draft

#248OTKelvin BeachumPIT — GM Kevin Colbert
#249DTTravian RobertsonATL — GM Thomas Dimitroff
#250RBEdwin BakerLAC — GM A.J. Smith
#251STJohn PotterBUF — GM Buddy Nix
#252RBDaryl RichardsonLAR — GM Les Snead

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 1 pick

2017Chad KellyDEN — GM John Elway · Mississippi

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