QB · pick 238 — first ever quarterback at #238 (1996)

QB·pick 238

FIRST QB EVER DRAFTED AT #238

Jon Stark

Drafted by BAL — GM Ozzie Newsome

1996

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1995, the model gave a quarterback at #238 a 4.1% chance in 1996.

Quarterback at #238, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 11.6% · 2027 model: 5.2%

Surrounding picks · 1996 draft

#233DTMarcus KeyesCHI — GM Rod Graves
#234DEKerry HicksCAR — GM Bill Polian
#235RBL.T. LevineDEN — GM Mike Shanahan
#236STBrian GragertDEN — GM Mike Shanahan
#237LBDan BrandenburgBUF — GM John Butler
#239TESean ManuelSF — GM Carmen Policy
#240QBKyle WachholtzGB — GM Ron Wolf
#241CJeff SmithKC — GM Carl Peterson
#242LBCarlos EmmonsPIT — GM Tom Donahoe
#243RBRyan WoodDAL — GM Jerry Jones

Drafted at this same coordinate later

Nobody else has been drafted as this position at this pick number.

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