QB · pick 204 — first ever quarterback at #204 (1997)

QB·pick 204

FIRST QB EVER DRAFTED AT #204

Tony Graziani

Drafted by ATL — GM Harold Richardson · Oregon

1997

QBs drafted at #204 in NFL history

most recent: Tony Pike (CAR, 2010)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1996, the model gave a quarterback at #204 a 4.4% chance in 1997.

Quarterback at #204, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 9.7% · 2027 model: 4.7%

Surrounding picks · 1997 draft

#199DERod ManuelPIT — GM Tom Donahoe
#200LBRichard HogansCHI — GM Mark Hatley
#201SRicky ParkerCHI — GM Mark Hatley
#202SSteve RosgaNYJ — GM Bill Parcells
#203CBHudhaifa IsmaeliMIA — GM Jimmy Johnson
#205DEChris WardBAL — GM Ozzie Newsome
#206RBTerry BattleDET — GM Chuck Schmidt
#207QBKoy DetmerPHI — GM Tom Modrak
#208DTMatt KeneleyNYG — GM George Young
#209DTAnthony DeGrateTB — GM Rich McKay

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 1 pick

2010Tony PikeCAR — GM Marty Hurney · Cincinnati

→ see this cell on the full chart