QB · pick 199 — first ever quarterback at #199 (1994)

QB·pick 199

FIRST QB EVER DRAFTED AT #199

Steve Matthews

Drafted by KC — GM Carl Peterson · Memphis

1994

QBs drafted at #199 in NFL history

most recent: Luke Falk (TEN, 2018)

Editor's note

Tom Brady

Patriots, 2000. Sixth round. The most famous draft slot in football history. Every year's #199 gets the 'next Brady?' headline; every year's answer is no.

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1993, the model gave a quarterback at #199 a 3.5% chance in 1994.

Quarterback at #199, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 9.5% · 2027 model: 4.7%

Surrounding picks · 1994 draft

#194LBBarron WorthamTEN — GM Floyd Reese
#195DERamondo StallingsCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#196DELance TeichelmanIND — GM Bill Tobin
#197QBGus FrerotteWAS — GM Charley Casserly
#198QBJay WalkerNE — GM Bill Parcells
#200OGJim PyneTB — GM Phil Krueger
#201RBJamal AndersonATL — GM Ken Herock
#202TECarlester CrumplerSEA — GM Tom Flores
#203OTAndre HewittCLE — GM Bill Belichick
#204RBFrank HarveyARI — GM Larry Wilson

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 2 picks

2018Luke FalkTEN — GM Jon Robinson · Washington St.
2000Tom BradyNE — GM Bill Belichick · Michigan

→ see this cell on the full chart