QB · pick 16 — first ever quarterback at #16 (1991)

QB·pick 16

FIRST QB EVER DRAFTED AT #16

Dan McGwire

Drafted by SEA — GM Tom Flores/Behring · San Diego St.

1991

QBs drafted at #16 in NFL history

most recent: EJ Manuel (BUF, 2013)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1990, the model gave a quarterback at #16 a 3.9% chance in 1991.

Quarterback at #16, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 16.7% · 2027 model: 5.0%

Surrounding picks · 1991 draft

#11OTPat HarlowNE — GM Sam Jankovich
#12WRAlvin HarperDAL — GM Jerry Jones
#13WRMike PritchardATL — GM Ken Herock
#14RBLeonard RussellNE — GM Sam Jankovich
#15LBHuey RichardsonPIT — GM Tom Donahoe
#17DTBobby WilsonWAS — GM Charley Casserly
#18DEAlfred WilliamsCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#19CBVinnie ClarkGB — GM Tom Braatz
#20DTKelvin PritchettDAL — GM Jerry Jones
#21RBHarvey WilliamsKC — GM Carl Peterson

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 1 pick

2013EJ ManuelBUF — GM Doug Whaley · Florida St.

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