QB · pick 158 — first ever quarterback at #158 (1984)

QB·pick 158

FIRST QB EVER DRAFTED AT #158

Terry Nugent

Drafted by CLE — GM Art Modell/staff · Colorado St.

1984

QBs drafted at #158 in NFL history

most recent: Kurt Kittner (ATL, 2002)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1983, the model gave a quarterback at #158 a 3.3% chance in 1984.

Quarterback at #158, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 7.9% · 2027 model: 4.1%

Surrounding picks · 1984 draft

#153QBRandy WrightGB — GM Forrest Gregg
#154WRDwight CollinsMIN — GM Mike Lynn
#155CTony SlatonBUF — GM Stew Barber
#156DTDon ThorpNO — GM Ken Meyer/staff
#157LBRod ClarkARI — GM Bill Bidwill
#159LBAaron SmithDEN — GM Edgar Kaiser/staff
#160QBJohn WitkowskiDET — GM Russ Thomas
#161WREric MullinsTEN — GM Ladd Herzeg
#162LBJohn KaiserSEA — GM Mike McCormack
#163DTDan RalphATL — GM Tom Braatz

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 1 pick

2002Kurt KittnerATL — GM Harold Richardson · Illinois

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