QB · pick 12 — first ever quarterback at #12 (1986)

QB·pick 12

FIRST QB EVER DRAFTED AT #12

Chuck Long

Drafted by DET — GM Russ Thomas · Iowa

1986

QBs drafted at #12 in NFL history

most recent: Bo Nix (DEN, 2024)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1985, the model gave a quarterback at #12 a 5.1% chance in 1986.

Quarterback at #12, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 19.6% · 2027 model: 7.0%

Surrounding picks · 1986 draft

#7OGBrian JozwiakKC — GM Jim Schaaf
#8DELeslie O'NealLAC — GM Steve Ortmayer
#9OGJohn RienstraPIT — GM Dick Haley
#10RBKeith ByarsPHI — GM Harry Gamble
#11LBJoe KellyCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#13OTJames FitzPatrickLAC — GM Steve Ortmayer
#14DEGerald RobinsonMIN — GM Mike Lynn
#15RBJohn WilliamsSEA — GM Mike McCormack
#16RBRonnie HarmonBUF — GM Bill Polian
#17LBTim GreenATL — GM Ken Herock

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 4 picks

2024Bo NixDEN — GM George Paton · Oregon
2017Deshaun WatsonHOU — GM Rick Smith · Clemson
2011Christian PonderMIN — GM Rick Spielman · Florida St.
1999Cade McNownCHI — GM Mark Hatley · UCLA

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