QB · pick 103 — first ever quarterback at #103 (2006)

QB·pick 103

FIRST QB EVER DRAFTED AT #103

Brad Smith

Drafted by NYJ — GM Mike Tannenbaum · Missouri

2006

QBs drafted at #103 in NFL history

most recent: Bryce Petty (NYJ, 2015)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2005, the model gave a quarterback at #103 a 4.2% chance in 2006.

Quarterback at #103, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 7.5% · 2027 model: 3.2%

Surrounding picks · 2006 draft

#98TEOwen DanielsHOU — GM Rick Smith
#99OGMax Jean-GillesPHI — GM Tom Heckert
#100WRMichael RobinsonSF — GM Scot McCloughan
#101SDarnell BingLV — GM Al Davis era
#102SCalvin LowryTEN — GM Floyd Reese
#104WRCory RodgersGB — GM Ted Thompson
#105SKo SimpsonBUF — GM Marv Levy
#106RBGarrett MillsNE — GM Bill Belichick
#107DTGabe WatsonARI — GM Rod Graves
#108OTJahri EvansNO — GM Mickey Loomis

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 2 picks

2015Bryce PettyNYJ — GM Mike Maccagnan · Baylor
2007Isaiah StanbackDAL — GM Jerry Jones · Washington

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