QB · pick 10 — first ever quarterback at #10 (2006)

QB·pick 10

FIRST QB EVER DRAFTED AT #10

Matt Leinart

Drafted by ARI — GM Rod Graves · USC

2006

QBs drafted at #10 in NFL history

most recent: J.J. McCarthy (MIN, 2024)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2005, the model gave a quarterback at #10 a 5.1% chance in 2006.

Quarterback at #10, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 21.9% · 2027 model: 8.7%

Surrounding picks · 2006 draft

#5LBA.J. HawkGB — GM Ted Thompson
#6TEVernon DavisSF — GM Scot McCloughan
#7SMichael HuffLV — GM Al Davis era
#8SDonte WhitnerBUF — GM Marv Levy
#9LBErnie SimsDET — GM Matt Millen
#11QBJay CutlerDEN — GM Mike Shanahan
#12DTHaloti NgataBAL — GM Ozzie Newsome
#13DEKamerion WimbleyCLE — GM Phil Savage
#14DTBrodrick BunkleyPHI — GM Tom Heckert
#15CBTye HillLAR — GM Jay Zygmunt

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 4 picks

2024J.J. McCarthyMIN — GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah · Michigan
2018Josh RosenARI — GM Steve Keim · UCLA
2017Patrick MahomesKC — GM John Dorsey · Texas Tech
2011Blaine GabbertJAX — GM Gene Smith · Missouri

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