QB · pick 1 — first ever quarterback at #1 (1970)

QB·pick 1

FIRST QB EVER DRAFTED AT #1

Terry Bradshaw

Drafted by PIT · Louisiana Tech

1970

QBs drafted at #1 in NFL history

most recent: Fernando Mendoza (LV, 2026)

Editor's note

30 careers begin here

Bradshaw, Plunkett, Elway, Aikman, Manning, Stafford, Newton, Burrow, Murray, Lawrence, Williams, Ward. Some bust fast (Bradford, Russell, Couch). Most go on. 30 #1-overall QBs since 1967 — the most-watched cell on the chart.

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1969, the model gave a quarterback at #1 a 10.2% chance in 1970.

Quarterback at #1, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 100.0% · 2027 model: 74.8%

Surrounding picks · 1970 draft

#2DTMike McCoyGB
#3QBMike PhippsCLE
#4DTPhil OlsenNE
#5LBAl CowlingsBUF
#7DTMike ReidCIN

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 29 picks

2026Fernando MendozaLV · Indiana
2025Cam WardTEN — GM Mike Borgonzi · Miami (FL)
2024Caleb WilliamsCHI — GM Ryan Poles · USC
2023Bryce YoungCAR — GM Scott Fitterer · Alabama
2021Trevor LawrenceJAX — GM Trent Baalke · Clemson
2020Joe BurrowCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin · LSU
2019Kyler MurrayARI — GM Steve Keim · Oklahoma
2018Baker MayfieldCLE — GM John Dorsey · Oklahoma
2016Jared GoffLAR — GM Les Snead · California
2015Jameis WinstonTB — GM Jason Licht · Florida St.
2012Andrew LuckIND — GM Ryan Grigson · Stanford
2011Cam NewtonCAR — GM Marty Hurney · Auburn
2010Sam BradfordLAR — GM Billy Devaney · Oklahoma
2009Matthew StaffordDET — GM Martin Mayhew · Georgia
2007JaMarcus RussellLV — GM Al Davis era · LSU
2005Alex SmithSF — GM Scot McCloughan · Utah
2004Eli ManningLAC — GM A.J. Smith · Mississippi
2003Carson PalmerCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin · USC
2002David CarrHOU — GM Charley Casserly · Fresno St.
2001Michael VickATL — GM Harold Richardson · Virginia Tech
1999Tim CouchCLE — GM Dwight Clark · Kentucky
1998Peyton ManningIND — GM Bill Polian · Tennessee
1993Drew BledsoeNE — GM Sam Jankovich · Washington St.
1990Jeff GeorgeIND — GM Jim Irsay/staff · Illinois
1989Troy AikmanDAL — GM Jerry Jones · UCLA
1987Vinny TestaverdeTB — GM Phil Krueger · Miami (FL)
1983John ElwayIND — GM Ernie Accorsi · Stanford
1975Steve BartkowskiATL · California
1971Jim PlunkettNE · Stanford

→ see this cell on the full chart