OT · pick 13 — first ever offensive tackle at #13 (1978)

OT·pick 13

FIRST OT EVER DRAFTED AT #13

Mike Kenn

Drafted by ATL · Michigan

1978

OTs drafted at #13 in NFL history

most recent: Tristan Wirfs (TB, 2020)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1977, the model gave a offensive tackle at #13 a 10.7% chance in 1978.

Offensive tackle at #13, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 19.9% · 2027 model: 7.0%

Surrounding picks · 1978 draft

#8DERoss BrownerCIN
#9CBKeith SimpsonSEA
#10OTGordon KingNYG
#11CBLuther BradleyDET
#12LBClay MatthewsCLE
#14WRJohn JeffersonLAC
#15STSteve LittleARI
#16CBlair BushCIN
#17QBDoug WilliamsTB
#18OGBob CryderNE

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 6 picks

2020Tristan WirfsTB — GM Jason Licht · Iowa
2016Laremy TunsilMIA — GM Chris Grier · Mississippi
2015Andrus PeatNO — GM Mickey Loomis · Stanford
2005Jammal BrownNO — GM Mickey Loomis · Oklahoma
1993Brad HopkinsTEN — GM Mike Holovak · Illinois
1986James FitzPatrickLAC — GM Steve Ortmayer · USC

→ see this cell on the full chart