OT·pick 1
Drafted by MIN · USC
1968
Ron Yary (Vikings, 1968), Orlando Pace (Rams, 1997), Jake Long (Dolphins, 2008), and Eric Fisher (Chiefs, 2013). The top of the OT column is where teams spend real money: Joe Thomas at #3 in 2007, Trent Williams #4 in 2010, Penei Sewell #7 in 2021, Joe Alt #5 in 2024.
No rarity score — the model compares each pick to its predictions for earlier seasons, and drafts from 1967–1969 sit before that runway is long enough.
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 66.2% · 2027 model: 3.6%