Colts, 2018. The highest pure guard taken since John Hannah went #4 to the Patriots in 1973. The OG column had one more top-5 entry — Bill Fralic at #2 in 1985 — and otherwise nothing above pick 7 for the entire post-Hannah era. Nelson is the ceiling test, and so far no one else has cleared it. The position is still treated as round-2 value.
How rare was this draftigami?
Trained on every pick through 1985, the model gave a offensive guard at #6 a 5.2% chance in 1986.
Offensive guard at #6, year by year
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 24.9% · 2027 model: 14.4%
Surrounding picks · 1986 draft
#1RBBo JacksonTB — GM Phil Krueger
#2DTTony CasillasATL — GM Ken Herock
#3QBJim EverettTEN — GM Ladd Herzeg
#4DEJon HandIND — GM Jim Irsay/staff
#5LBAnthony BellARI — GM Bill Bidwill
#7OGBrian JozwiakKC — GM Jim Schaaf
#8DELeslie O'NealLAC — GM Steve Ortmayer
#9OGJohn RienstraPIT — GM Dick Haley
#10RBKeith ByarsPHI — GM Harry Gamble
#11LBJoe KellyCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
Drafted at this same coordinate later · 2 picks
2023Paris JohnsonARI — GM Monti Ossenfort · Ohio St.
2018Quenton NelsonIND — GM Chris Ballard · Notre Dame