OG · pick 257 — first ever offensive guard at #257 (2022)

OG·pick 257

FIRST OG EVER DRAFTED AT #257

Marquis Hayes

Drafted by ARI — GM Steve Keim · Oklahoma

2022

OGs drafted at #257 in NFL history

most recent: Alex Forsyth (DEN, 2023)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2021, the model gave a offensive guard at #257 a 6.6% chance in 2022.

Offensive guard at #257, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 28.7% · 2027 model: 19.0%

Surrounding picks · 2022 draft

#252LBJeff GunterCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#253SRuss YeastLAR — GM Les Snead
#254SElijah HicksCHI — GM Ryan Poles
#255STTrenton GillCHI — GM Ryan Poles
#256LBJesse LuketaARI — GM Steve Keim
#258WRSamori ToureGB — GM Brian Gutekunst
#259SNazeeh JohnsonKC — GM Brett Veach
#260RBZander HorvathLAC — GM Tom Telesco
#261OTAJ ArcuriLAR — GM Les Snead
#262QBBrock PurdySF — GM John Lynch

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 1 pick

2023Alex ForsythDEN — GM George Paton · Oregon

→ see this cell on the full chart