OG · pick 153 — first ever offensive guard at #153 (1975)

OG·pick 153

FIRST OG EVER DRAFTED AT #153

Tom Alward

Drafted by NYJ · Nebraska

1975

OGs drafted at #153 in NFL history

most recent: Jalen Rivers (CIN, 2025)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1974, the model gave a offensive guard at #153 a 7.0% chance in 1975.

Offensive guard at #153, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 20.9% · 2027 model: 14.5%

Surrounding picks · 1975 draft

#147OTDoak, MarkMark DoakWAS
#148CBRoland WoolseyDAL
#149LBMike LemonNO
#151LBTom HicksCHI
#152DTLarry JamesonARI
#154RBHenry HynoskiCLE
#155LBBroussard, BubbaBubba BroussardMIN
#156OTMarvin CrenshawPIT
#157RBKim JonesIND
#158TEJim ObradovichNYG

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 6 picks

2025Jalen RiversCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin · Miami (FL)
2019Ross PierschbacherWAS — GM Bruce Allen · Alabama
2014Cyril RichardsonBUF — GM Doug Whaley · Baylor
1991Mike SullivanDAL — GM Jerry Jones · Miami (FL)
1987Paul KiserATL — GM Ken Herock · Wake Forest
1978Tony ArdizzoneDET · Northwestern

→ see this cell on the full chart