DT · pick 40 — first ever defensive tackle at #40 (1977)

DT·pick 40

FIRST DT EVER DRAFTED AT #40

Bob Baumhower

Drafted by MIA · Alabama

1977

DTs drafted at #40 in NFL history

most recent: Isaiah Foskey (NO, 2023)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1976, the model gave a defensive tackle at #40 a 10.3% chance in 1977.

Defensive tackle at #40, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 20.5% · 2027 model: 14.7%

Surrounding picks · 1977 draft

#35SMike DavisLV
#36OGR. C. ThielemannATL
#37RBTony ReedKC
#38OGGeorge ReihnerTEN
#39OTGreg KochGB
#41LBTerry BeesonSEA
#42CBWalt WilliamsDET
#43CBMike SpiveyCHI
#44RBHorace IvoryNE
#45RBRob LytleDEN

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 3 picks

2023Isaiah FoskeyNO — GM Mickey Loomis · Notre Dame
2020Ross BlacklockHOU — GM Bill O'Brien · TCU
2009Ron BraceNE — GM Bill Belichick · Boston Col.

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