DE · pick 40 — first ever defensive end at #40 (1978)

DE·pick 40

FIRST DE EVER DRAFTED AT #40

Al Baker

Drafted by DET · Colorado State

1978

DEs drafted at #40 in NFL history

most recent: R Mason Thomas (KC, 2026)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1977, the model gave a defensive end at #40 a 8.3% chance in 1978.

Defensive end at #40, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 16.8% · 2027 model: 11.7%

Surrounding picks · 1978 draft

#35CBRay GriffinCIN
#36LBKeith ButlerSEA
#37CBOdis McKinneyNYG
#38DEScott HutchinsonBUF
#39STJohnny EvansCLE
#41OTMilton HardawayLAC
#42LBJohn BarefieldARI
#43LBSteve StewartATL
#44OGBrett MoritzTB
#45RBDave TurnerCIN

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 6 picks

2026R Mason ThomasKC · Oklahoma
2022Boye MafeSEA — GM John Schneider · Minnesota
2013Tank CarradineSF — GM Trent Baalke · Florida St.
1999Tony BryantLV — GM Al Davis era · Florida St.
1993Michael StrahanNYG — GM George Young · Texas Southern
1991Shane CurryIND — GM Jim Irsay/staff · Miami (FL)

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