DE · pick 200 — first ever defensive end at #200 (2007)

DE·pick 200

FIRST DE EVER DRAFTED AT #200

Melila Purcell

Drafted by CLE — GM Phil Savage · Hawaii

2007

DEs drafted at #200 in NFL history

most recent: Sam Roberts (NE, 2022)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2006, the model gave a defensive end at #200 a 8.9% chance in 2007.

Defensive end at #200, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 18.5% · 2027 model: 6.4%

Surrounding picks · 2007 draft

#195RBDeon AndersonDAL — GM Jerry Jones
#196OTHerbert TaylorKC — GM Carl Peterson
#197WRCourtney TaylorSEA — GM Tim Ruskell
#198CDoug DatishATL — GM Rich McKay
#199CDrew MorminoMIA — GM Randy Mueller
#201CBRashad BarksdalePHI — GM Tom Heckert
#202CBMike RichardsonNE — GM Bill Belichick
#203SDaren StoneATL — GM Rich McKay
#204DEJacob FordTEN — GM Mike Reinfeldt
#205QBJordan PalmerWAS — GM Vinny Cerrato

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 2 picks

2022Sam RobertsNE — GM Bill Belichick · NW Missouri St.
2013Kapron Lewis-MooreBAL — GM Ozzie Newsome · Notre Dame

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