DE · pick 165 — first ever defensive end at #165 (2011)

DE·pick 165

FIRST DE EVER DRAFTED AT #165

Pernell McPhee

Drafted by BAL — GM Ozzie Newsome · Mississippi St.

2011

DEs drafted at #165 in NFL history

most recent: Joe Jackson (DAL, 2019)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2010, the model gave a defensive end at #165 a 8.4% chance in 2011.

Defensive end at #165, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it — no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 15.2% · 2027 model: 6.8%

Surrounding picks · 2011 draft

#160QBNathan EnderleCHI — GM Jerry Angelo
#161OGJulian VanderveldePHI — GM Howie Roseman
#162LBChris CarterPIT — GM Kevin Colbert
#163OGDaniel KilgoreSF — GM Trent Baalke
#164CBChykie BrownBAL — GM Ozzie Newsome
#166LBLawrence WilsonCAR — GM Marty Hurney
#167WRRyan WhalenCIN — GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#168OGDemarcus LoveMIN — GM Rick Spielman
#169LBChris WhiteBUF — GM Buddy Nix
#170SMistral RaymondMIN — GM Rick Spielman

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 1 pick

2019Joe JacksonDAL — GM Jerry Jones · Miami (FL)

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